
The world’s largest software company lost $18 billion in market value
since the purchase of Nokia’s mobile-phone assets was disclosed,
erasing all of the gains that followed the announcement last month that
Ballmer is retiring, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
agreement cements the departing chief executive officer’s shift toward
the more volatile consumer-device business and leaves little room for
his successor to take a different tack, Atlantic Equities LLP said.
Microsoft is chasing growth in a market already dominated by Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOG) with devices that generate lower returns than the company’s business-software division.
Nokia CEO Stephen Elop is returning to Microsoft as part of the asset
sale, making him Ballmer’s most likely successor and signaling that the
company is in smartphones for the long haul, Sanford C. Bernstein &
Co. said, even as some shareholders say that strategy is misplaced.
“I can’t say I’m too thrilled about the deal,” Tim Schwartz, a money manager at Bloomfield Hills,
Michigan-based Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc., which oversees $1.3
billion and owns Microsoft, said in a phone interview. “The perception
is that this is going to be a continuation of the old management and
old-school Microsoft mentality.”
Ballmer Exit
Microsoft
shares surged 7.3 percent on Aug. 23 after Ballmer, who has been CEO
since 2000, said he will retire within 12 months. Some investors were
eager for his replacement to be an outsider who might make bold moves to
reverse a shrinking market value, such as spinning off consumer-centric
units like Xbox and shifting its focus back toward software and
services for businesses.
The Nokia purchase instead has fueled
speculation that Elop, a former Microsoft executive, is being groomed to
take the helm and will continue with Ballmer’s strategy of keeping
enterprise and consumer products under one roof. The stock has dropped 6.6 percent since announcing the Nokia deal, sending Microsoft’s market value down to $260 billion yesterday.
Today, Microsoft shares climbed 0.1 percent to $31.23 at 9:50 a.m. New York time.
“There
have been a meaningful proportion of investors who had hoped that
Microsoft would de-emphasize its consumer businesses and focus on its
more profitable, more predictable corporate businesses,” Chris Hickey, a
London-based analyst at Atlantic Equities, said in a phone interview.
“This acquisition obviously makes that possibility extremely unlikely”
and “ties the hands” of the next CEO, he said.
Critical Market
Microsoft
said adding Nokia’s handset business will let it make more money from
Windows Phones and help the software maker move faster and create better
products in a market that is critical to its success. The company sees
“significant long-term revenue and profit opportunities” for
shareholders, Ballmer said in the press release announcing the deal.
“Phones
are the most personal of the personal devices people use today and
success in phones is important for success in tablets and PCs,” Brad Smith, Microsoft’s general counsel, said in an interview Sept. 3. “We need to move faster.”
Tony Imperati, a spokesman for Microsoft, declined yesterday to comment further.
The timing of the deal limits activist shareholder ValueAct Holdings LP’s ability to fight the deal, according to Rick Sherlund,
a New York-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. ValueAct last week won
an agreement that would give it a seat on Microsoft’s board next year
and guaranteed regular meetings with “selected Microsoft directors and
management.” In return, the investor won’t pursue or participate in a
proxy contest.
Response Options
A person with knowledge
of the matter has said that ValueAct wants Microsoft to focus on its
business software and Internet-based cloud services rather than consumer
technology. Representatives for ValueAct didn’t return calls for
comment on the Microsoft-Nokia deal.
“Now that ValueAct has
entered its standstill agreement, it is not clear what alternatives
ValueAct may have to respond to shareholder dissatisfaction with the
Nokia deal,” Sherlund wrote in a note Sept. 3.
Much of the
dissatisfaction is due to “not the deal itself but what it could mean,”
Mark Moerdler, a New York-based analyst at Bernstein, said in a phone
interview. “It may not be the end of the investments Microsoft makes in
trying to chase after the consumer market, an area that the Street may
or may not feel is the best use of Microsoft’s resources.”
More Deals?
Microsoft
still needs more applications and services if it wants to fulfill
Ballmer’s strategy of integrating its services with its devices, similar
to what Apple has done, Jason Maynard, a San Francisco-based analyst at Wells Fargo & Co., wrote in a Sept. 3 report.
BlackBerry
Ltd.’s strong presence in the enterprise market could still attract
interest from Microsoft, according to people familiar with the matter
who asked not to be identified. Shares of the Canadian smartphone maker,
which is weighing a sale, have risen 6.2 percent since Microsoft’s
Nokia announcement.
Microsoft paid 0.42 times Nokia’s trailing
12-month revenue from devices and services, according to data compiled
by padua that include net debt. That revenue multiple would imply an
enterprise value of $4.8 billion for Blackberry. The device maker’s
equity and net cash are currently valued at $2.8 billion.
The
acquisition will put an even bigger spotlight on the struggles in
Microsoft’s consumer-devices business, which are likely to continue as
it faces off against stronger rivals Apple and Google, Hickey of
Atlantic Equities said.
Declining Asset
The deal doesn’t
offer much more to Microsoft than it already had as part of its
partnership with Nokia, according to Nandan Amladi, a New York-based
analyst at Deutsche Bank AG.
“They already had a partnership in
place, so people are wondering why they bought an asset with a declining
revenue base and pretty challenging margins,” Amladi said in a phone
interview.
Microsoft is paying a much higher premium for the Nokia assets than “even optimistic estimates suggested they were worth,” said Todd Lowenstein,
a Los Angeles-based fund manager at HighMark Capital Management Inc.,
which oversees about $19 billion and owns Microsoft shares.
“The
deal handcuffs the next CEO somewhat,” Lowenstein said in an e-mail.
“This feeds into the perception Microsoft lacks capital discipline,
overpays on deals, and chases growth in areas where they aren’t
competitive at their core.”