BlackBerry Ltd. (BB)’s
withering smartphone business means potential acquirers will pick over
its more alluring assets, including software and patents, which together
may be worth about $5 billion, roughly in line with the company’s
current market value.
BlackBerry’s once-lucrative services
business and hardware unit would have zero value in a breakup as phone
losses erode fee-based revenue earned from each subscriber, according to
Raymond James Ltd. If a buyer closed the hardware unit in favor of its
own technology, it would cost about $800 million, said BMO Capital
Markets. BlackBerry’s patents, software and a secure network are each
worth more than $1 billion, BMO said, and the company has about $2.8
billion in
cash.
An analyst at Wedge Partners Corp., talks about the outlook for
BlackBerry Ltd. following the mobile phone maker's statement that it's
considering putting itself up for sale.
He speaks with Sara Eisen, Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg
Television's "Surveillance." Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer of
FusionIQ and author of the "Big Picture" blog, also speaks. (Source:
Bloomberg)
The Waterloo, Ontario-based
company appointed board members last week to analyze a sale or new
partnerships to try to turn the company around. The value of the
hardware unit may plummet further as customers shy from buying a device
whose future is up in the air, leading acquirers to gravitate to
BlackBerry’s other assets, Brian Huen, managing partner at Red Sky
Capital Management, said by phone on Aug. 19.
“You’re effectively
killing that business by saying ‘I’m up for sale,’” said Huen, whose
Toronto-based firm manages about C$220 million ($212 million) in assets
including BlackBerry shares. “Nobody is interested in buying the entire
entity. I think they are now in the phase of saying, ‘We will do
anything to maximize value, including breaking up the company.’”
Little Interest
Lisette
Kwong, a spokeswoman for BlackBerry, declined to comment yesterday
about a potential breakup and sale of the company’s parts.
BlackBerry
hired JPMorgan Chase & Co and RBC Capital Markets 17 months ago to
explore its strategic options as sales of the company’s once-iconic
phones tumbled amid competition from Apple Inc. and
Samsung Electronics Co. (005930)
Those bankers contacted possible bidders late last year and found
little interest in buying the whole company, particularly from
private-equity firms, said two people familiar with those discussions.
International
Business Machines Corp., made an informal approach to buy BlackBerry’s
enterprise-services business in 2012, two people told Bloomberg in
August of that year. IBM, based in Armonk, New York, wasn’t interested
in pursuing the whole company, the people said. James Sciales, an IBM spokesman, declined to comment.
Android, Apple
The
hardware business, which helped fuel net income of $3.4 billion in
2011, lagged behind as the industry shifted to touchscreen devices with a
wide variety of applications available for download. BlackBerry’s share
of the global smartphone market fell to 2.9 percent in the second
quarter from 4.9 percent a year earlier, behind Microsoft Corp.’s
Windows Phone platform,
Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iOS and Google Inc.’s market-leading Android, according to IDC, based in Framingham,
Massachusetts.
Speculation
that the company might be taken private to be restructured or broken up
out of the public spotlight accelerated after the Aug. 12 announcement,
in which Prem Watsa, a Toronto-based businessman and BlackBerry’s
largest shareholder, said he would step down from the board. The company
didn’t mention going private as an option at the time.
BlackBerry
fell 3 percent to $10.22 at 9:58 a.m. in New York, cutting its market
value to $5.35 billion. Through yesterday, the shares had tumbled 11
percent this year, leaving BlackBerry down more than 90 percent from its
2008 high.
Nuclear Plants
“We struggle to assign any
value to the hardware business given the belief the most logical
acquirer of BlackBerry would likely attempt to transition BlackBerry’s
subscriber base to its own competing smartphone products or ecosystem,”
Michael Walkley, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in
Minneapolis, said in an Aug. 12 note. He rates BlackBerry a sell.
In
addition to its cash, BlackBerry has smartphone patents, an operating
system that powers car-information systems and even nuclear power
plants, and a network of secure servers that cater to millions of
government and business users. The company had 72 million smartphone
subscribers at the end of June.
Tim Long, an analyst at BMO
Capital Markets in New York, puts the cost of shutting down BlackBerry’s
hardware unit at about $800 million, or $1.50 a share. He rates
BlackBerry a hold.
Nortel’s Fate?
The company’s cash
reserves will be worth about $2.6 billion at the end of this fiscal
year; its patents and other intellectual property might fetch $1
billion; the network would be worth $1.2 billion; and the software about
$1.5 billion, Long said in an Aug. 13 note to clients. Subtracting the
$800 million estimated cost of shutting down the handset businesses,
that would give BlackBerry a sum-of-the-parts value of about $5.5
billion, or $10.50 a share.
Raymond James put the value of
BlackBerry’s patents higher, as much as $1.6 billion. In an Aug. 12
note, Raymond James’s Steven Li said BlackBerry is probably worth about
$4.5 billion, or $8.70 a share, if broken up. Toronto-based Li rates
BlackBerry a hold.
A breakup scenario is more likely because few
buyers want and are willing to pay for all of BlackBerry’s assets, even
at the stock’s
depressed valuation, Joe Compeau, an information-systems lecturer with Ivey Business School in
London, Ontario, said by phone. That means it could be headed for the same fate as
Nortel Networks Corp. (NRTLQ)
The company filed for bankruptcy in 2009 and sold its main assets in a
series of auctions that fetched $7.8 billion for its creditors.
Cash Trove
“What
happened with Nortel, where they just started selling bits of it, that
could happen,” Compeau said. “There’s not that many players who can
extract value from all those different parts.”
Unlike Nortel,
BlackBerry has never issued debt and had $2.8 billion worth of cash and
cash equivalents at the end of June, more than enough to ward off
bankruptcy.
The company reported a loss last quarter and expects
another loss this quarter, a sign the new phones do not have the
traction with customers that Chief Executive Officer Thorsten Heins was
counting on to drive a turnaround in BlackBerry’s fortunes. The company
posted a $646 million loss in fiscal 2013, its first annual loss in a
decade.
Sales of the new BlackBerry Z10 touch-screen phone missed
analysts’ estimates by close to a million units last quarter. Investors
will learn if the possibility of a company sale has scared off
smartphone buyers on Sept. 27, when BlackBerry releases quarterly
results.
Production Cut
Peter Misek,
an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, says that may already be
happening. Monthly phone production was cut to 1 million units from 2
million units last month, and has since been cut by a further 10
percent, Misek said, citing supplier checks. He rates BlackBerry a buy.
“Leveraged
buyout and acquisition headlines will cause enterprises to delay
purchases until they have greater clarity on BlackBerry’s future as a
company,” said in an Aug. 19 note.